Unemployment Claims: United States 📊

The month of March 2020 in the United States has been nothing short of a full-scale economic collapse in wake of COVID-19. According to NPR, the week ending March 28th reported 6.648 million unemployment claims. This is reported double to what was filed the week before at 3.307 million unemployment claims. California has been hit the hardest with just over a million unemployment claims filed the week ending March 28th. This is a +964,069% increase from the week before, shocking. On March 9th we saw the stock market crash on the infamous ‘Black Monday’ of 2020.

Historical Chart of Unemployment Claims

Comments Below,

Michael C. Moran

Afternoon Market Update 4/2/2020 📱

Afternoon Market Update 4/2/2020 📱

The DJIA has seen a slight increase today by 0.83% (refer to snapshot details above) and for those who hold index funds the performance most likely correlates with your portfolio. News of coronavirus mitigation and various private sector PPE production may be the cause for this market shift. However, the markets have been wildly unpredictable since the outbreak of the virus and the financial markets do not mirror the current global economic outlook. Refer to my quote from today’s Facebook group, ‘Fidelity Investing’ on holding for the long-term.

Market Update 4/1/2020 📉

The economic U-shaped recovery ideology holds true as we continue to live in bear market territory. Many investment management companies advise the purchasing of shares at a lower bid price than typical market territory. I plan on continuing my purchasing schedule and sticking to my asset allocation of 70% domestic stock and 30% domestic bonds. My most recent buy in was FTEC at $61.88, this ETF checks off all of my buy in boxes – Historical Return, Dividend Yield, Beta, Expense Ratio, and Holdings Analysis.

Today’s Quote: ”The idea that a bell rings to signal when investors should get into or out of the market is simply not credible. After nearly 50 years in this business I do not know of anybody who has done it successfully and consistently.” – Jack Bogle, Founder of The Vanguard Group

Comment Below,

Michael Moran

Market Watch Update 3/30 📲

🇺🇸 US: Hospitals are being constructed at a rapid pace and personal protection equipment is doing the same at rapid pace in the private sector. At yesterday’s white house briefing President Trump invited many private representatives to the podium to discuss the ventilator and n95 mask production progress. Although cases are spiking indefinitely both the public and private sector are working tirelessly to prevent the spread. Sterilization of masks has been discussed with the nations leading doctors. More to follow…

🌐Learn more at thewhitehouselive, usnews.com

🤵Federal Reserve: The Federal Reserve is intervening with banks for business lending, most recently two actions to support the U.S economy. Good news for small businesses! Remember if you’re small business is struggling you may qualify for an SBA loan.

Here is what the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System:

The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced two actions to support the U.S. economy and allow banking organizations to continue lending to households and businesses:

  • Allowing early adoption of a new methodology on how certain banking organizations are required to measure counterparty credit risk derivatives contracts; and
  • Providing an optional extension of the regulatory capital transition for the new credit loss accounting standard.

Michael’s view: It seems at this point the Federal Reserve is finally playing ball and keeping up with the best interest of the economy at an appropriate pace to save human lives. The quantitative easing and banking interventions should have been rolled out sooner when the virus first closed businesses. The anticipation of the virus collapsing the U.S economy was clear, however many public officials and the President were unable to execute the process fast, until now.

🌐Learn more at Federalreserve.gov, foxnews.com, yahoofinance.com, washingtonpost.com

🏪 U.S. Small Business: According to marketwatch.com the White House vows to dole out emergency loans to small businesses this week. The bi-partisan stimulus relief package administered by President Trump includes $350 billion to small business sectors whose sales have plunged and ordered to close.

📈 Financial Markets Overview

*Market Snapshot @ 12:32pm EST

US Stock Market – DJIA: +2.15

Europe Market – Global Dow Realtime EUR: 1.24%

Asia Market – NIKKEI 225 Index: -1.57%

Coronavirus News

Detroit, Michigan cases grow exponentially as hospitals fill to full capacity. Public health officials predict virus will peak in 2 weeks’ time and Dr. Fauci believes the virus has the potential to kill 200,000 people. Public and private sector continue to deploy disaster relief to best of ability.

Stay Home,

Michael Moran

Market Update 3/28 📲

Market Update 3/28 📲

🇺🇸 US: The $2 trillion stimulus bill has passed and American’s who qualify will receive a paycheck from the federal government. Many individuals will receive $1,200 while many married couples will receive $2,400.

Unemployment claims rose to an all time record high at 3.2 million. Strangely the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose on Thursday before correcting back to the bear territory representative of this time period.

The economy will be in a recessionary period for a while similar to a U-shaped curve. Many analysts believe it will take a couple years to see the record stock market highs we saw before the virus hit.

Comment Below,

Michael C. Moran

Michael C Moran – Market Watch Update 3/25 📲

US News: The house and the senate finally worked out their indifference for the betterment of the American people and agreed on a $2 trillion package to provide relief to people during the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus, or COVID-19 crisis. More to follow…

🌐Learn more at abcnews.com

🤵Federal Reserve: The Federal Reserve is to monitor and assist financial institutions on its ‘supervisory approach’.

Here is what the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System:

“The Federal Reserve Board on Tuesday provided additional information to financial institutions on how its supervisory approach is adjusting in light of the coronavirus.”

In particular:

  • The Federal Reserve will focus on monitoring and outreach to help financial institutions of all sizes understand the challenges and risks of the current environment.
  • To minimize disruption and to focus on outreach and monitoring, the Federal Reserve will temporarily reduce its examination activities, with the greatest reduction in activities occurring at the smallest banks.

Michael’s view: At this point for the sake of America we need our politicians and public officials working relentlessly on saving lives. Now is NOT the time for a right wing left wing debate. Rather the task at hand should be economic improvement, PPE generation, and vaccine funding support for the nation’s best equipped companies.

🌐Learn more at Federalreserve.gov, foxnews.com, yahoofinance.com, washingtonpost.com

🏪 U.S. Small Business: Small Business Administration loans are now available directly on sba.gov. On the webpage there is an application button for the low interest loans “due to the coronavirus (COVID-19)”. The SBA has the Economic Injury Disaster Loan program which provides working capital loans of up to $2 million.

📈 Financial Markets Overview

*Previous Day Close/Snapshot mid-afternoon EST (Foreign Markets)

US Stock Market – DJIA: (+2.39%)

Europe Market – Global Dow Realtime EUR: (+11.27%)

Asia Market – NIKKEI 225 Index: (+8.04%)

Coronavirus News:

  • President Trump wants to reopen the markets by Easter in fear of economic depression and he claimed that “thousands more would die from suicide” if we are to lockdown the nation without a working economy. Dr. Fauci and Bill Gates believe the President is not taking a medical approach to this crisis.
  • Cases in Michigan Double to just below 3,000.

Stay Home,

Michael Moran

The War on COVID-19

The War on COVID-19

It’s been an eye-opening couple of weeks as the United States effectively shuts down in wake of the COVID-19 crisis. Mitigation efforts extend to the state of Michigan government as Governor Whitmer ordered all bars and restaurants to close for 3 weeks, starting March 16th at 3PM EST. The coronavirus originated in China and started to slowly spread overseas and now has caused both a pandemic and declaration of national emergency, hence the extreme mitigation measures taken by the state of Michigan amid the discovery of COVID-19 cases in Kent and Ottawa County.

Retail stores have been barren and trucks are being escorted by police cars with ‘precious’ supplies, most notably trucks full of toilet paper. During the initial outbreak of the COVID-19 spread in to the US, it would seem that the world had gone crazy with the amount of supplies hording and barren shelves at grocery stores and local markets. On the bright side this virus has brought the nation together across many organizations, small businesses, and local communities.

The non profit sector is scrambling to put emergency plans in to place for local relief in areas such as health, financial stability, and food solutions. As bars and restaurants were ordered to close on the 16th in the state of Michigan we are seeing many in the food business suddenly out of work with no short-term solution aside from government reliance in the form of unemployment benefits. The first few days of this has been hectic as tensions rise with lack of governmental solutions at speed. We will closely monitor how this unfolds in the coming days and weeks.

Filing for Unemployment can take up to weeks with dozens of hurdles to jump through all of which are unsafe to be in a congregation of people at a local government office where germs are easily spread. So the question is, “how realistic is this solution for the everyday working person who is out of a job?”. The answer is not realistic whatsoever. It’s been a few days now since schools have shut and the nation has self-quarantine measurements in place. A shelter-in-place order was placed upon San Francisco residents on Monday which is a national emergency related measure that New York City public officials have hinted at possibilities of.

🚨 Breaking News 🚨

The White House Officials are suggesting that every American could be sent a $1,000 check to relieve the financial hardship that the virus has brought upon the economy along with many families across the nation. The idea was proposed by Senator Mitt Romney of Utah and supposedly given a ‘thumbs up’ by President Trump per the Washington Post. More to follow on this breaking news subject.

Here is what the Washington Post wrote about the discussions:

“We’re looking at sending checks to Americans immediately,” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said, adding that Trump wants checks to go out “in the next two weeks.”

In addition to this idea brought to light by government officials, President Trump has also stated he will “waive student loan interest payments” during this COVID-19 crisis as a part of the financial relief Bill. Both of these anticipated government actions will have to go through due process to achieve checks and balances before individuals receive financial relief, COULD TAKE WEEKS!

Calm and Collected?

The United States is seeing a much larger negative economic impact than simply the US Stock Market shares being reduced in share price. People are out of jobs due to closures in the food and retail industries which lead to increased poverty levels and panic. Local agencies must continue to provide relief while national legislation formulates plans to carry out financial relief. President Trump has expressed his every intention to fight off this virus even declaring a war on it.

Comments Below,

Michael Moran, IHG Management

Sources: washingtonpost.com, fox17online.com

Declaring National Emergency

Declaring National Emergency

Today was a reassuring day for most Americans and citizens from all around the globe, as the United States of America declared a national emergency in spite of the Coronavirus spread. President Trump’s speech instilled an aura of togetherness to fight this virus, and put extreme healthcare measures in place to quarantine the virus and prevent its spread. The US Stock Market responded positively as a whole amid extreme market slide over the past days, alarming many on the status of their 401k and IRA retirement accounts.

Essentially the entire United States of America is closed for approximately 3 weeks and many are finding difficulties already with daily work schedules and child care needs. Local relief agencies are late to the party as were state officials and unfortunately President Trump had certain restrictions before he could act as quickly as possible when the virus broke out across the globe in China.

Mike Pence among other top healthcare executives were at the event in support of the National Emergency Declaration, and the healthcare officials were able to offer their efforts in summary of how the agencies are working to prevent the spread. Quest Diagnostics and CMS were among many other healthcare executives who are leading the medical pursuit of safety and prevention.

The Trump administration has put emergency plans in place and coordinated heavily with the CDC. Common sense measurements were put in to place by the CDC to prevent the spread. In addition increased inspection within nursing homes and hospitals was administered by President Trump. The administration collaborated with the education department to postpone school-related events and gatherings in addition to the overall school closures.

On a financial standpoint, stock prices and index funds went soaring this afternoon surrounding the 3pm EST speech. Speculation surrounds a more significant and lingering decline in the economy and stock market around 19000 points. Will this happen? It would appear as if the recession is looming with international productions and China threatening to halt pharmaceutical exports to the United States.

Market Snapshot 3/13/2020 as of 5:15 PM ET

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 9.36% almost 2,000 points in the hours around the speech. I was carefully watching the market movements from the hours 2pm-4pm EST and the share prices for all of my funds skyrocketed back to within close to their resistance lines. Sepculation surrounds the market slide continuation moving into next week.

Let’s all follow the common sense preventative measures issued by all public health officials and stop the spread of this disease as best as possible. More news to come on modern economics, business news, and financial markets insights.

God Bless America,

Michael Moran, Managing Partner of IHG Management

Black Monday 2020

Black Monday 2020

Today is Monday March 9th, 2020 or perhaps ‘Black Monday of 2020’ as the world economy and financial markets would suggest. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped (-5.41%) today as the US Stock market experiences decline of the same undoing as the 2008 financial crisis.

To make matters worse for the ‘safe’ investors who want to transition their investments toward bonds, the fed rates cut of 0.50% took place last week and declining 10-year treasury yields continue. To be clear, I love investing in treasury bonds as the long-term performance is outstanding and I am not worried in the slightest about the future of the bond market. If the treasury does not issue any bonds there will be more complex repercussions.

Similar losses reported today in the NASDAQ and S&P 500 👇

The outbreak of the coronavirus has caused mass panic across world markets and the media are reporting the spread of the virus and containment efforts in accordance with public officials. To add fuel to the fire (no pun intended) oil prices plunged HALTING THE STOCK MARKET for 15 minutes due to fear of recession! In my investment career this has never happened in such extreme circumstances.

The fact that the statistical data of the coronavirus doesn’t compare with the flu, it certainly has been promoted heavily by the media as financial markets are absolutely tanking. The first case of the coronavirus in the US reported on January 20th occurred in Washington State and since then 552 confirmed cases were recorded. It is safe to say the US has been largely untouched by this virus comparatively however the economy is cause for concern.

Below is a map of the outbreak in the US:

President Trump illustrating statistics regarding the virus 📲

Social Media Post

President Trump has been reassuring the American people that the Administration is doing everything possible to contain the outbreak and spread of the disease in accordance with public officials. He insists that “nothing is shut down, life and the economy go on”. The CDC has been issuing precautions as the virus spreads throughout Europe and into the US.

Here is how the CDC describe the virus, “CDC is responding to an outbreak of respiratory disease caused by a novel (new) coronavirus that was first detected in China and which has now been detected in almost 90 locations internationally, including in the United States. The virus has been named “SARS-CoV-2” and the disease it causes has been named “coronavirus disease 2019” (abbreviated “COVID-19”).

On January 30, 2020, the International Health Regulations Emergency Committee of the World Health Organization declared the outbreak a “public health emergency of international concernexternal icon” (PHEIC). On January 31, 2020, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex M. Azar II declared a public health emergency (PHE) for the United States to aid the nation’s healthcare community in responding to COVID-19.

Let’s hope the world leaders, governments, and public officials can all unite to discover solutions to the decline in the economy and put away the recession fears. For now investors should remain calm as the long-term is where real returns are made.

Thanks For Reading,

Michael Moran, IHG Management

Sources: bloomberg.com

cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html